Without a Trace

From our March 2008 issue: Last Labor Day, Steve Fossett—the investment wizard turned record-setting adventurer—took off in a plane from a remote Nevada airfield. He hasn't been seen since. Our reporter retraces the search for Fossett, while examining the theories behind his disappearance—and behind his frequent attempts to defy death

By Bryan Smith

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Fossett with Richard Branson in 2006

Since the disappearance, the Internet has buzzed with conjecture—much from "the wacko contingent," as Cynthia Ryan describes it. Did Fossett stage his own disappearance? Could he have committed suicide, having been driven by some deep and hidden sense of melancholy? He disappeared within range of Area 51—the top-secret government airfield that has long been a darling of conspiracy theorists. Perhaps he was shot down and "disappeared" in an elaborate cover-up. There have been rumors that Fossett and Peggy had a serious argument the morning of his flight. Might he have been distracted at a crucial moment? (She has refused all comment.)

Friends and searchers alike express doubt that this was anything other than an accident, citing a variety of factors. Among other things, Fossett was too well known to have arranged some kind of staged disappearance. In any case, the logistical challenges posed by such a ploy would have been huge. "Fossett is a very recognizable man and the media coverage has been intense, which would make a planned disappearance ... nearly impossible," asserts the petition to have Fossett declared legally dead. What's more, investigators have ruled out the possibility that Fossett left the airspace being searched, and no money has been withdrawn from Fossett's accounts since his disappearance.

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Fossett's Last Flight (Interactive map)

Views from the Search Plane (Video)

As for suicide, both of the friends with whom I spoke said the idea is virtually unimaginable, given Fossett's upbeat nature. "Out of the question," says Jay Levine, chief correspondent with CBS 2 Chicago and a longtime friend.

Peggy Fossett seems to confirm that notion in an affidavit in support of the petition to declare her husband dead. "[He] did not have any reason to disappear," she says. "Steve was happy and passionately involved in his pursuit of adventure."

Still, the disappearance was so unlikely, both friends and searchers have admitted to momentary doubts. "If he wanted to disappear, yes, it's possible," says Ron Ryan, Cynthia Ryan's husband and a CAP pilot who was deeply involved in the search. "A lot of people have had theories like that and it's not impossible. Highly unlikely, but not impossible. That's part of what's so fascinating about this."

Patrick H. Arbor, the former chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade and a longtime friend, agrees. "It's just such a mystery, such a conundrum. Certainly some of those things crossed my mind from time to time. But I dismissed all of them. He was happily married; he had no money problems. He loved life, loved his adventures."

And yet, friends have struggled to believe that Fossett, so charmed, so skilled at escaping death, could succumb to something so mundane as a small plane crash. "I thought for sure when I heard the story that he would survive," says Arbor, echoing the view expressed by many in the first days after the disappearance. "I have traveled all over the world with him and been with him in all kinds of situations—I used to kid him that it was like traveling with a Walgreens store. He would have medication and antibiotics and Band-Aids. He was always so well prepared with water filters and gadgets and stuff like that. I thought he would walk out of there."

"Steve is a tough old boot," billionaire Richard Branson told reporters shortly after Fossett's disappearance. "I suspect he is waiting by his plane right now for someone to pick him up."

Photograph: AFP Photo/Pool/David Dyson