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The Chicago Mayoral Vote: Predictions for Tuesday

Will there be a runoff? Can Carol Moseley Braun arrest her slide in support? Will voters move from Del Valle to Chico in order to stop Rahm Emanuel’s seemingly inevitable victory? The Magic 8-Ball says….

As we approach Tuesday’s Democratic mayoral primary, Eric Zorn is collecting predictions from Chicago political experts, and also me. (I don’t know if I’m an expert in anything; weekend returns suggest I’m pretty good at Angry Birds and rice-maker barley risotto with Polish forest mushrooms.)

My prediction is pretty close to his, although we have Braun and Del Valle switched. Which might not sound all that important, but how much support those two candidates have on Tuesday might actually be the most important question. If Braun arrested her slide with seemingly well-received late debate performances, she could cut into Emanuel’s black support. If progressives really are sold on Del Valle, he might draw votes from Chico’s anybody-but-Rahm contingent… or vice versa? I don’t know who the “realist” candidate is for progressives, honestly.

Anyhow, my prediction:

Emanuel: 52%

Chico: 28%

Del Valle: 10%

Braun: 8%

Van Pelt-Watkins + Walls: 2%

I think Chico makes a somewhat stronger showing than he’s been polling… I think Del Valle does about as well as he’s been polling… and I don’t think it’s enough to push it to a runoff.

Additonal bonus prediction: after a weekend of looking at what the candidates are promising, I predict we will get a grid-based garbage collection system. 

Buy-2-Get-One-Free Prediction: The winning candidate will definitely examine city departments for efficiencies!


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