January 2008

In the late 1990s, economists, real-estate analysts, and others were puzzled by the housing market. House prices kept going up, confounding everyone’s forecasts. Ten years later, we’re on the other side of that hill: Prices are going down, but nobody seems to know how far they will descend.

Since home prices are a moving target at the moment, up-to-date price data is hard to come by. But I have been hearing routinely that appraisers now use 2004 prices as their benchmarks; just a few months ago, they were using 2005 prices. A 2004 price would mean that after 13 years of increases, we’ve slipped back about three years. That means if you bought your home before 2004, you are still ahead of the game. But that’s only if the market doesn’t fall any farther—and most forecasts say...